some results................

A table in today's edition of Suara Timor Lorosae showed the contenders and the positions they were in at midnight. If you look at the overall numbers, Ramos-Horta is in the running, with Lu'Olo trailing about 2000 votes behind, and then Lasama about 9000 votes behind Lu'olo. But this is a mix of final and provisional counts. If we only look at the final counts of Aileu, Ainaro, Covalima,Manatuto and Oecusse, the result is quite different. Xavier led in Aileu and Ainaro, while Lasama secured Covalima and Oecusse, and Horta only with Manatuto. The Timorese are keeping real close tabs on the results, with some even calling their friends in the districts to ascertain results. Lu'olo is winning big in predictable spots like Baucau, Lautem, and Viqueque altho the results are all provisional for these districts.

According to a friend, he thinks that if it comes down to a run off between Lu'Olo and Horta, Lu'Olo is likely to win as supporters for Lasama and Lucia Lobato may not feel inclined to vote for Horta. Particularly for Lasama supporters as they don't support Horta's pursuit of Alfredo Reinado. So this would be interesting to see whether the opposition collaborate or not, in order to install Ramos-Horta as president. If they are unable to coalesce, then Lu'olo is likely to win.

from the personal views i've gathered , votes for Lu'olo seem to be really sentimentally tied to the resistance years. Fretilin still evokes strong emotions and pride in the people. THe resistance years were a time when they stood united as a people. Also, the fact (often mentioned) that the broadcasting system here has not reached most parts of the country so those in the districts are unlikely to have seen what happened in Dili with their own eyes or heard with their own ears, in order to judge. Ramos-Horta's biggest win so far remains to be in Dili; in places like Ainaro and Ermera, he received less than 1000 votes each. It'll really interesting to see how this all pans out.

Remember in 2002 when people voted Fretilin and then were dismayed to find out that it chose Mari Alkatiri as the PM? I asked friends if this featured in their decision-making, i.e. if Lu'Olo (who is said to be credible, and independent thinker by some) is voted in as President, then when Fretilin wins, it is almost 99% that Alkatiri will be PM again. I asked, why not keep Lu'Olo for a parliamentary position where he can have more input to improving the leadership? Someone remarked that this is perhaps why Alkatiri is pushing so hard for Lu'Olo (his best competition) to be President (largely figure head) so that when Fretilin wins in parliamentary elections, he will likely be the PM again.

True or not?